Why TikTok could go dark next month

Today’s Social Media advertising rates are ditching Jack Antonoff for Max Martin:

↘️ META: $7.23 CPM | ↗️ TIKTOK: $4.96 CPM | ↗️ SNAPCHAT: $9.34 CPM

In this week’s edition: 

• 🎉 TikTok’s newest ad unit: the After party 

• AI ads are coming to Grok 🤖

• 🔎 The inside scoop on Google’s Max Clicks

But first…

☠️ TikTok Death Watch: Here We Go Again?

Will TikTok go dark again on September 17? That’s the implication of a late-July CNBC interview given by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick that has flown under the radar but deserves more attention. 

Among the highlights: 

• If China doesn’t approve a TikTok deal, “then TikTok is going to go dark,” Lutnick told the network. “And those decisions are coming very soon.”

• Lutnick also confirmed—as we’ve predicted since last fall—that TikTok is now entangled in US-China trade talks: “It’s not officially a part of it, but unofficially, of course, it’s going to be discussed.”

The likeliest date for a shutdown? September 17, when Trump’s latest Executive Order expires. (Legal scholars note that this order may be illegal on its face, as it contradicts existing U.S. law.) 

For those reading tea leaves, Lutnick’s remarks suggest two things: the TikTok deal is dragging, and the White House may be looking to increase pressure on China. This comes as the administration faces mounting calls to finalize an agreement. Last weekend, the New York Times turned up the heat with an editorial clearly aimed at the President: “Trump is letting TikTok (and China) win.”

Earlier in July, The Information reported that a U.S.-only version of TikTok was in development—part of a White House effort to broker a sale of TikTok’s American business that would satisfy both the spirit and the letter of the law banning the app. 

That law—proposed by Trump, passed with bipartisan support in Congress, signed by former President Joe Biden, and upheld by a Trump-leaning Supreme Court—remains in force. 

Meanwhile, several U.S. companies—including Apple, Google, and Oracle—face billions in potential fines under the law, but are gambling that letters from the U.S. Department of Justice, which promised not to enforce the law, will hold up in court.

The Inside Scoop🍦: Now trending in performance media

♾️ Meta advertising, as most brands realize, is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Some advertisers get access to better platform tools than others. Add this to our list of recent discoveries: Meta’s account-level reps are able to pull a report that shows a rolling average of month-by-month incremental reach. Who knew? 

📷 Instagram appears to be prototyping a new feature called “Picks” that would let users highlight their interests via their inbox Notes. Sound familiar? It should: it’s a bit of a throwback to old-school Facebook, and if it takes off, the feature could give Meta a more direct read on what its users are interested in, rather than inferring based on viewing activity.

💡Pro tip: Ever noticed that your Meta ad previews look different depending on how you preview them? How do you know which one to trust? Meta recommends following the preview generation link and getting a feed post sent to your FB notification. Previewing the post in a "live environment" is the most accurate reflection of how it will truly be shared out vs the quick previews in the build experience.

🔎 Google Ads: Running a campaign with a Maximize Clicks bid strategy? We spoke with a support agent to learn what’s typically happening on the backend. TL;DR: the “sawtooth” pattern you may be seeing is typical and intentional. Here’s what the algorithm is up to:

• Day 1: Maximize clicks sets competitive bids, client wins a lot of auctions and a campaign might over deliver (no more than 2x daily budget).

• Day 2: The system tries to adjust, and thus decreases bids. Such behavior can make a campaign less competitive, hence they may win less auctions. This will in turn lead to less spending.

• Day 3: To get more traffic, Maximize clicks can increase bids again to try and get clicks.

⛔ Many of us have a love-hate relationship with Performance Max. For one 20-year growth marketing veteran, it’s shifted entirely to hate. Read: “Confessions of a marketer pulling every client off Google’s PMax.”

💡Pro Tip: Have questions about how to run campaigns on Google’s live-TV platform YouTubeTV? Google recently revealed a new help page that spells out the formats, policies, and clearance requirements advertisers must meet to run campaigns there. A few things to keep in mind:

• You can run ads on YouTube TV via reservations or tCPM auctions—if your creative passes review and has no music rights issues.

• Political spots need extra verification and 4-second on-screen disclosures.

• Even if you’re eligible, YouTube TV won’t serve your ad unless it clears its own stricter creative review.

⏰ TikTok is alpha-testing a new product: After View Ads, also known as Post-Roll Ads, which run at the end of organic 60-second videos. TikTok is positioning After View as an opportunity to reach users at the end of high-dwell content while watchers are still engaged and looking for their next piece of content. According to TikTok, in early tests, After View ads showed a 50% improvement in cost per view and a 196% increase in focused view 15-second view-through rate compared with standard video placements.

⏩ Also now in alpha testing: Bulk Duplicate and Bulk Delete. Bulk Duplicate allows advertisers to duplicate multiple ads or ad groups at once, from the campaign list or the campaign creation flow, while Bulk Delete enables you to remove multiple items at once during campaign creation. 

🍋 On August 18, TikTok will begin adding Lemon8—ByteDance’s Pinterest-meets-Instagram lifestyle app—to Smart+ campaigns. That means your TikTok ads could start showing up in Lemon8s’s highly curated, influencer-heavy feeds without you lifting a finger. Toggling the placement on and off requires allow-listing in advance from the platform.  

🧠 Smart+ is also getting a slew of creative improvements. Among the new benefits: 

• Using asset groups, drive to up to 30 URLs and product sets without needing to create multiple campaigns.

• Upload up to 1,500 creatives per campaign (previously a maximum of 30).

• Better creative-level reporting, looking at both creative combinations and individual elements (creative, copy, and ad enhancements like CTA buttons and add-ons).

🛍️ As of this week, TikTok has moved Catalog Video ads into general availability. Catalog Video ads dynamically match and rotate videos based on user behavior and are paired with matching product tiles. TikTok claims that advertisers have seen a 56% increase in ROAS as compared to brand-focused video ads. 

🤖 Elon Musk told advertisers this week that X will begin inserting ads into responses from its AI chatbot Grok. Provided they follow through, they’ll be among the first to market in the AI-ads space. Google has already begun rolling out ads in AI Mode, but other major platforms including ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude are still in the planning stages. 

💡Pro Tip: Beware when duplicating: you may find that X removes all of your targeting and switches to auto targeting instead. 

📺 Roku just launched Howdy, an ad-free subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) service that retails for $2.99 per month. According to Roku, the company saw a gap in the streaming marketplace amid the rising cost of ad-free entertainment. Howdy is a solution the company believes will appeal to both premium subscription and free TV audiences as a low-cost complement to those other services.

Thanks for reading! We’re 🌴 ON VACATION 🏖️ next week, but we’ll be back August 28 to fill your inbox with more tips, tricks, and treats from the addressable universe.

In the meantime, stay up to date with the latest performance marketing intelligence by following us on Linkedin, Instagram, and X.